Author(s): Pawan Bhavsar, Jayantilal N. Patel
Linked Author(s): PAWAN BHAVSAR
Keywords: HEC-HMS, Monte-Carlo method, sensitivity analysis, rainfall runoff modeling
Abstract: Today, it is essential to use a hydrological model to assess and predict the water availability of river basins due to climate change. Event based rainfall-runoff modeling is carried out using HEC-HMS. In the present study, Linear imaging self-scanning sensor (LISS-III) satellite images are used to delineate the river basin by using ARCGIS. Penman-Montieth model is used for the estimation of evapotranspiration loss. Green- Ampt model and Snyder's method are compared and best suitable method is adopted to transform rainfall into runoff. Uncertainty analysis is carried out to increase the model efficiency. The condition number is being used for the sensitivity analysis to ascertain the most sensitive parameters. Only sensitive parameters are used for the uncertainty analysis. The Model is separately run, calibrated, and validated for the years 2011-2015 events. Green � Ampt and Snyder models are compared for the predictive capability and it has been concluded that Green �Ampt model is better suitable for the study area. The objective of the present study is to develop rainfall runoff model for the Lower Tapi Basin and carried out the uncertainty analysis to estimate the better model parameters for the simulation of rainfall events. For the uncertainty analysis, Monte-Carlo method is used by taking Nash �Sutcliffe coefficient as an objective function, which is to be maximized for the better simulation of rainfall runoff process
Year: 2017