Author(s): Hiroaki Suzuki; Makoto Nakatsugawa; Nobuo Ishiyama

Linked Author(s): Makoto Nakatsugawa

Keywords: Climate change; Geological condition; Cold snowy region; Water circulation model; Water temperature

Abstract: In this study, the impact of climate change on streamwater temperatures in cold snowy regions, where groundwater impacts vary with geological conditions, was clarified. A physics-based water circulation model was developed by combining atmospheric and surface process models that consider snow processes, a runoff model, and a water temperature estimation model. The runoff model parameters varied depending on the geological characteristics of each watershed. The current water temperatures were effectively reproduced by the model; in the future, according to IPCC RCP 8.5, water temperatures in the areas of new pyroclastic flows were predicted to remain lower in summer than in the areas of older formations. The results also showed that considerable uncertainty exists in predicting future stream water temperatures, depending on how groundwater temperatures will change in the future. The findings of this study will be useful for future adaptations to climate change in stream ecosystems.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p0290-cd

Year: 2023