Author(s): Daisuke Nohara; Yoshinobu Sato; Tetsuya Sumi

Linked Author(s): Yoshinobu Sato, Daisuke Nohara, Tetsuya Sumi

Keywords: Reservoir operation; Climate change; Hydropower; Heavy snow area; 150-year continuous experiment

Abstract: There is growing concern that climate change will alter snowfall-snowpack-snowmelt processes in heavy snowfall areas in Japan in the future. Snowfall and snowpack in such areas will decrease as global temperature increases, while the timing of snowmelt will move earlier with warmer temperature, which can lead to low-flow season after the snowmelt season. These changes may cause severe impacts on water uses for hydropower, irrigation and municipal water. Water resources management can therefore become difficult in heavy snowfall areas in Japan under the changing climate. In order to clarify an effective way to manage water resources in heavy snowfall areas in Japan in the changing climate, this paper investigated the potential impacts of climate change on seasonal reservoir operation for hydropower and water supply in the Tedori River basin, a heavy snowfall basin in Japan, through the simulation of long-term reservoir operation using 150-year continuous climate experiment projected by MRI-AGCM3.2S of Meteorological Research Institute, Japan. As a result of analysis with the developed simulation model, it was shown that impacts of climate change on seasonal reservoir operation can become significant especially in the second half of 21st century. The result also showed that seasonal pattern of reservoir storage volume and power generation may alter considerably, and water shortage may occur more frequently in the second half of 21st century without any countermeasure such as changes in seasonal operation rules.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p0388-cd

Year: 2023