Author(s): Beatriz Sepulveda Pires; Alberto Luiz Francato

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Mathematical models; Hydrological forecast; Rainfall-runoff model; Operation planning

Abstract: Planning the operation of hydroelectric power plants is essential to achieve the optimal generation of energy resources and reduce losses. The flow forecast in periods of scarcity is fundamental to optimize generation without affecting other uses of water and, in periods of heavy rains, knowledge of the flow increment values is fundamental for the planner to foresee attention, alert and emergency situations in dams, being able to anticipate decision-making and maintain the safety of operators and the local community. Given the above, this work aimed to apply two models for converting rainfall into flow, the physical and deterministic model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure, SMAP, and the linear stochastic model, MEL, to evaluate the possibility of integrating the models to optimization of results, study the daily discretization, as well as the reliability of the predicted rainfall data to the realized data. The independent and integrated models presented good correlation, indicated by the value of the correlation coefficient between the calculated and observed flows. It was found that the calculated and observed flows for both models demonstratedaccurate performance in estimating peak flow trends, with deviation for accurate peak flow estimation. The study showed that the use of both models as a flow forecasting tool for hydroelectric power plants will support the operation planning in order to improve the estimation of generation and allocation of maintenance, as well as to predict critical events and support to the decision-making process, aiming at the safety of downstream structures and population.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p0903-cd

Year: 2023