Author(s): Sogol Moradian; Apoorva Bamal; Agnieszka I. Olbert

Linked Author(s): Agnieszka Olbert

Keywords: Climate change; Temperature projections; NEX-GDDP-CMIP6; Ireland

Abstract: In order to capture the temperature patterns over Cork, Ireland, this study analyzed the performance of temperature estimates from the latest version of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). The applied archive contained downscaled historical and future projections for 1990–2100 based on the outputs from Phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) over Ireland. Using a set of statistical metrics, 34 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models were compared to the observation data in a 25-year period of 1990-2014. A comprehensive assessment was performed at different temporal scales including monthly, seasonal and annual. The outputs of the models exhibit that the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models can reproduce the climatological features of temperature over the country; however, the reliability of temperature estimates varies significantly across time. The findings illustrate substantial inter-model variability over different time scales. Results can be used as a guideline for hydrologists as well as climate scientists in choosing the proper climate model according to the task.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p0951-cd

Year: 2023