Author(s): Giovanni Carlo Flores Fernandez; Sonia Tatiana Sanchez Quispe; Abel Solera Solera; Jose Jaime Madrigal Barrera

Linked Author(s): SONIA TATIANA SANCHEZ QUISPE

Keywords: Drought; Climate Change; Precipitation; Index

Abstract: Water resource availability and permanence are affected by climatic anomalies such as drought. Its characterization through indicators is a process to evaluate its historical severity, but predicting its future behavior and effect is complex due to meteorological parameter variation related to climate change. Being necessary to analyze different scenarios to predict the possible impact and degree of damage. This work's purpose is the analysis of drought through meteorological indexes. Considering four climate change models and two RCP scenarios, allowing to establish some guidelines for the probable future drought conditions and their correlation with hydrological behavior linked to the study area. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and streamflow drought index (SDI) are considered for drought estimation under 6-month and 12-month accumulation. The drought analysis is done in a Michoacan state basin in Mexico for future precipitation and temperature projection (2006-2099) through climate change series from CNRMCM5, GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-ES & MPI-ESM-L, CORDEX-RCA4 models, for 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. Finding that the GFDL-CM3 model presents the most unfavorable drought evolution. Likewise, the periods 2044-2056 and 2068-2084 are identified with the greatest drought recurrence of considerable duration, reaching intensities of up to -3.0 or less according to the index classification.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p1027-cd

Year: 2023