Author(s): Jing Yin, Fan He, Guoyu Qiu, Shi Feng, Junjie Zhang, Shuang Zhang
Linked Author(s): Jing Yin
Keywords: Jinghe River Basin, SWAT Model, climate change, surface runoff simulation
Abstract: According to the long sequence observational data of 10 precipitation stations and five meteorological stations distributed in the Jinghe River Basin, the temperature and precipitation change trends of Jinghe River Basin from 1970s to the beginning of this century were analyzed. The study showed that: climate in Jinghe River Basin showed warming and drying characteristics from 1980s to 1990s, and warming and wetting characteristics from 1990 to 2005. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. Through scenario simulation, the impact of land use/land cover change (LULC) was removed. The simulated results indicated that: the annual runoff of the basin was totally increased by 29. 75 m3s-1 from 1970s to 1980s under the combined effects of climate change and LULC. Wherein the annual runoff was increased by 26. 07 m3s-1 as a result of climate change, and the contribution percentage was 87. 62%. The annual runoff was reduced by 12. 59 m3s-1 from 1980s to 1990s under the combined effects. Wherein climate change reduced the annual runoff by 7. 04 m3s-1, and the contribution percentage was 55. 92%. The annual runoff was reduced by 15. 65 m3s-1 from 1990s to 2005 under the combined effects. Wherein climate change reduced the annual runoff by 6. 59 m3s-1, and the contribution percentage was 42. 11%. The 1980s was a transition of climate change on annual runoff of the Jinghe River Basin. The annual runoff increased before 1980s, while decreased after 1980s as a result of climate change. The influence proportion of LULC was increased gradually
Year: 2017