Author(s): Xiaosheng Qin; Lilingjun Liu

Linked Author(s): Xiaosheng Qin

Keywords: Copula analysis; Extreme rainfall; MCMC; Urban hydrology

Abstract: This study meticulously assesses the interplay of fine-resolution rainfall and its subsequent impact on urban hydrological peak flows in a tropical urban catchment. To achieve this objective, a meticulous analysis of 5-minute rainfall series is undertaken, emphasizing the extraction of critical variables, including the 5-minute maximum intensity and the 30-minute rainfall intensity preceding the peak. These two variables undergo a thorough examination of their interconnections using copula, facilitating a nuanced understanding of their probabilistic relationships. Subsequently, a bivariate frequency assessment is employed to unravel the intricacies of joint return curves. The study proceeds to forecast peak urban hydrological flows within a typical catchment area by establishing connections among the identified variables, employing a linear regression model. The results underscore the notable impact of joint probabilistic rainfall behaviour on urban peak flows. The Bayesian-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach proves effective in addressing uncertainties arising from describing bivariate behaviours. The findings furnish valuable perspectives for urban water managers, empowering them with essential information for judicious decision-making in the realm of urban water management.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-123

Year: 2024