Author(s): Xuan Wang, Nan Zang, Pei Yu Liang
Linked Author(s): Xuan Wang
Keywords: Joint probability analysis, water quantity and quality, water environment risk, Chao River
Abstract: As a main tributary into the Miyun Reservoir, the only surface drinking water source of Beijing City, the Chao River plays an important role in ensuring the water safety of the reservoir. Taking the discharge as a representative indicator of the water quantity, as well the total nitrogen (TN) concentration and the total phosphorus (TP) concentration as indicators of the water quality, this research calculated joint probability of the water quantity and the water quality indicators of the river by applying the Frank copula function on the basis of analysis of their marginal probability distributions. Then, some water resource management strategies associated with water environment risk were proposed under various combination scenarios of water quantity and water quality variations from 2000-2010. The results showed the following: (1) the Frank copula was suitable for joint analysis of the water quantity and the water quality; (2) from the perspective of water safety of the river, TP concentration had a greater risk than TN concentration for the inflow of the reservoir due to high occurrence probabilities, and then water resource protection measures were provided accordingly. It could provide an effective means of risk analysis for comprehensive management of the water quantity and the water quality in the reservoir inflows
Year: 2017