Author(s): Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Ho Chi Minh City; Multiple trend tests; Quantile delta mapping; Rainfall projections; Temporal trend patterns; Trend-preserving bias correction

Abstract: Climate risks have posed a major threat to local communities settling in worldwide low-lying coastal megacities, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes through multi-temporal trend tests. This study further employed the quantile delta mapping method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest CMIP6 under eight shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly leaving successive five years out in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes imply the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods with reference to the base period (1995-2014). Generally, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station is consistently responsible for the highest increases in annual rainfall, with the projected changes being approximately 30.9% (8.3 - 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i. e., SSP5-8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-200

Year: 2024