Author(s): Muhammad Haris Ali; Claudia Bertini; Ioana Popescu; Andreja Jonoski; Schalk Jan Van Andel

Linked Author(s): Ioana Popescu

Keywords: of Weerijs; Climate change; Hydrological modelling; KNMI'23 climate scenarios; MIKE-SHE

Abstract: Catchments worldwide are experiencing hydrological changes due to the changing climate. Grasping the dynamics between climate change and catchment hydrology paves the way for better management practices. This research aimed to assess future water availability in the Aa of Weerijs catchment, in The Netherlands, by employing a hydrological model forced with meteorological projections for the 2050s. These meteorological projections are derived from the latest KNMI'23 climate scenarios and aligned with IPCC 2021’s global projections. Results indicate a projected increase in average annual rainfall by 1.4% to 6.2% compared to the base period (2010-2019). However, owing to rising temperatures, projected increases in actual evapotranspiration (AET) are larger, ranging from 13.8% to 14.7%. As a result, hydrological components such as river discharge (Q), groundwater recharge (R) and baseflow (BF) are foreseen to experience negative effects. These projected changes exhibit seasonality and vary according to different climate scenarios. Overall, however, the negative impact of climate change on the hydrology of catchments is expected to be significant, particularly in terms of reduced average values of Q, R and BF during summer.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-206

Year: 2024