Author(s): Touseef Muhammad; Lihua Chen; Yiyi Zhang

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Climate Change; CMIP6; SSP’s; SWAT

Abstract: Climatic variability and quantification of climate change impacts on hydrological parameters are persistently uncertain. This study examined how climate change affects hydroclimate-focused changes in hydrological parameter means and streamflow based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A Remote Sensed Evapotranspiration (RSET) using (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) GRACE data was incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model across the Hongshui River Basin (HRB) to anticipate hydrologic responses to future climatic conditions. The second half of the twentieth century (1960–2020) and twenty-first century (2021–2100) SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Paths) conducted for CMIP6 models projected precipitation (5–16%) for the entire HRB. The ensemble of GCMs predicted a 2 °C increase in HRB annual mean temperature. The average changes in long-term future scenarios suggest that streamflow will rise by 4.2% under SSP-126,6. 2% under SSP-245,8. 45% under SSP-370, and 9.5% under SSP-585. The relative contribution of climate change in streamflow variability is 11% using the climate elasticity approach over the HRB. Most modelling ensemble members provide promising findings for future water resources management techniques, despite the huge uncertainty in hydrological variable projections.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-223

Year: 2024