Author(s): Yang Peng, Zhiyi Wu, Kai Chen
Linked Author(s): Yang Peng
Keywords: Multi-objective risk analysis, flood uncertainty, Copula-Monte Carlo method, optimal operation of reservoir flood control, mainstream and tributary
Abstract: Flood control operation of a reservoir system is a multi-objective decision making process and the uncertainty in flood will bring risk to flood control operation. In this study, the flood control risk caused by the uncertainties of floods in mainstream and tributary is investigated, and a multi-objective risk analysis method for explicitly describing the risks of reservoir flood control operation is proposed by using the Copula-Monte Carlo (CMC) method. The joint distribution of the mainstream and tributary is established through the copula function, and the flood hydrographs of mainstream and tributary are calculated according to the peak discharge ratios of the simulated flood to the corresponding observed flood. As a result, flood risk rates and the corresponding objective values are estimated by using Monte Carlo (MC) method through the reservoir flood and multi-objective flood control scheduling on the simulated floods of mainstream and tributary. In addition, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method based on combinational weight is used to evaluate each operation schemes. This method is applied to a case study in Xiangjiaba Reservoir to analyze the risks of flood control operation. A non-inferior set for risk rate of each objective and the corresponding values are obtained, and optimal solutions with different weights are derived. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is a useful tool to reduce the flood risks while maintaining the reservoir benefit, which can provide technical support for multi-objective decision-making of reservoir operation
Year: 2017