Author(s): Jun Zhang; Laura E. Condon

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Climate change; Drought; Groundwater; ParFlow-CLM

Abstract: Drought is a widespread hazard globally and is associated with great uncertainty under climate change. Previous studies on future drought scenarios have mainly focused on the atmospheric aspect, but few have considered the buffer function of groundwater for droughts. Using a severe drought occurred in the 1960s as a baseline event, this study examined the overall hydrological responses to droughts under climate change in the northeastern coast of the United States. Based on the atmospheric forcing of the drought in the past (1960s) and future scenarios (2020s, 2040s and 2090s) with ParFlow-CLM. Results show that more precipitation is expected in the future and less snow pack may reduce the streamflow in spring. Groundwater storage recharged by precipitation was found to increase in the future and more importantly the contribution of groundwater to streamflow was shown to be more significant in dry periods. Increasing groundwater storage and varying groundwater contribution in different time periods will further influence the hydrological performance of the system such as the runoff ratio. In this study, groundwater has been demonstrated to be an important source for mitigating the effects of drought and has the capacity to enhance the resilience of the hydrological system to the drought.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-496

Year: 2024