Author(s): Weiwei Shao, Dan Xu, Jiahong Liu, Guiyu Yang, Jianhua Wang, Yongqiang Cao, Haibing Wu, Shuang Zheng
Linked Author(s): Weiwei SHAO
Keywords: Most stringent water resources management system, total water use, ARIMA model, water use forecast
Abstract: In view of the problems of water resource shortage and water use conflict, China's �most stringent water resources management system� (MSWRMS) has been implemented since 2012. The evaluation of the effects of the implementation of this MSWRMS, which will form the basis for the establishment of the assessment mechanism, is necessary and urgent. Taking the total water use in the "three red lines" of the most stringent water resources management system as the indicator, this study analyzes the water use of the agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological sectors in 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) of China in 2014 using anomaly analysis and value added analysis methods. The provinces of Guangdong, Anhui, and Qinghai are selected as representatives of the eastern, central, and western regions of China, respectively. Analysis is conducted based of the total water control management system and relevant measures for the implementation in the typical provinces in 2014. The results show that the most stringent water resources management are implemented well in the three provinces through actively relevant policies. In addition, this study uses the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model in SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) to build an optimal model of water use in China, and to thereby simulate and predict change trends of the water use volume for the country as a whole as well as for different sectors. The results obtained in this study will provide a reference for the development, adjustment, and further implementation of the objectives of the MSWRMS in China
Year: 2017