Author(s): Martin Jasek; Fengbin Huang; Hung Tao Shen
Linked Author(s): Hung Tao Shen
Keywords: Freeze-up; Ice cover; Front progression; CRISSP1D
Abstract:
BC Hydro regulates the flow at the W. A. C. Bennett and Peace Canyon Dams in British Columbia to meet electricity load for the province of British Columbia but also to promote a stable ice cover near the Town of Peace River, AB, about 370 km downstream to avoid ice cover consolidations and reduce the resulting flooding potential during freeze-up. BC Hydro along with Alberta Environment and Protected Areas has been using the CRISSP1D model to forecast when to implement flow operations to encourage stable ice cover formation (flow control). To produce an accurate forecast, the model must simulate the advance rate of the leading edge of the ice cover (ice front) accurately. The previous version of the model worked well most of the time but underpredicted the rapid ice cover advance rates during weather colder than about -25 to -30 oC and therefore, would overpredict the timing of the implementation of ice control if such colder weather coincided with the ice front reaching the vicinity of the Town of Peace River. This paper describes enhancements to CRISSP1D to improve the forecasting accuracy. The improvement in predicting ice front advancement comes from a calibrated bank cohesion function with air temperature, using a lower roughness for a single layer ice cover compared to a consolidated ice cover.
Year: 2024