Author(s): Zuzanna Cuban; Krzysztof Pilczynski; Ryszard Staroszczyk
Linked Author(s): Zuzanna Cuban
Keywords: Vistula Lagoon; Climate change; Cumulative freezing degree days; Ice occurrence and thickness
Abstract: In recent decades, Poland has experienced a steady rise in mean air temperature, with an average increase of 0.29°C every 10 years. This trend has resulted in a cumulative increase of about 2°C between the years 1950 and 2020, with significant impacts on winter coldness and ice formation. The warming climate has extended the navigation season, which is particularly crucial for the Vistula Lagoon, known for its susceptibility to freezing due to the low salinity of the water and its small depth. With the plans for the construction of a navigation canal through the Vistula Spit and the deepening of the long-existing Elblag Canal, the Vistula Lagoon is expected to see an increase in shipping activity, which will make the port of Elblag more economically viable and will enable cargo transport from Gdynia and Gdansk harbours. The aim of this research is to investigate and better understand the impact of climate change on the ice season in the Vistula Lagoon. The analysis of available historical data, together with the results of the calculation of the cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD) index and the ice thickness probabilities, have shown that ice cover occurs regularly in winter seasons in the Vistula Lagoon, and its mean thickness is larger than that in the Gulf of Gdansk. While climate change results in a decrease in the number of days with ice cover, the rate of decrease in the number of cold and very cold days is much smaller. This observation has significant implications for the planning of regional cargo shipping and the port infrastructure development and maintenance under the warming climate conditions.
Year: 2024