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A Methodological Approach for Supporting Socio-Hydrological Modelling of a Complex Nexus System

Author(s): Claudia Panciera; Alessandro Pagano; Raffaele Giordano; Ivan Portoghese; Mert Can Gunacti; Sefa Nur Yesilyurt; Mohamed Najar; Cem Polat Cetinkaya; Gulay Onusluel Gul; Estrella Lopez; Manuel Bea

Linked Author(s): Alessandro Pagano

Keywords: No Keywords

Abstract: The Water-Ecosystems-Food Nexus is increasingly studied and adopted both in the research and in the policy fields, since there is evidence of the side effects of sectoral policies implemented without considering any cross-sectoral analysis (Susnik et al., 2021). In a scenario of accelerated changes, both from a climatic and socio-economic point of view (demographic and economic expansion), natural resources such as water are constantly threatened by competing multiple sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industry and environment (Karamouz et al., 2021). The complexity of natural resources management becomes more critical in areas where natural reserves are jeopardized by human action, such as the Donana National Park, a coastal area in SW Spain where the environmental and economic interests have varied over time with increasing contrasts among stakeholders. The LENSES project is operating in the Donana area (as one of the case studies in the Mediterranean area), with the objective to propose a new approach based on Participatory System Dynamic Modelling (PSDM) to recognize the major challenges and the drivers for the system, ultimately suggesting potential actions/strategies, using a Nexus approach. Our work focuses on the assessment of the system under current and future conditions, integrating PSDM with other sectoral models (in particular, hydrological modeling and water resources allocation). This integrated model supports decision making processes in view of the implementation of Nexus approaches, to make the system resilient and more sustainable over time.

DOI:

Year: 2024

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