Author(s): Yujie Chai; Ioan Nistor; Abdolmajid Mohammadian; Ryota Nakamura
Linked Author(s): Ioan Nistor
Keywords: Typhoon Nesat; Climate change; SSP5
Abstract: Understanding how future warming conditions influence typhoons is a growing area of concern. However, the knowledge of how climate variables will affect typhoons remains limited, particularly for the Philippines, one of the most vulnerable regions to such events. This study aims to enhance understanding by applying pseudo global warming (PGW) technique with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2100, taking Typhoon Nesat as a case study. Four PGW experiments were conducted, with various climate factors, using mini-ensemble of WRF models. The projections suggest that extreme events such as Typhoon Nesat will become more intense under future warming conditions, with warming sea surface temperature (SST) playing the dominate impact on this intensification. These results highlight the potential for stronger typhoons in a warming climate, reinforcing the importance of disaster planning and mitigation efforts in vulnerable regions.
Year: 2024