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The Impact of Climate Change on the Reliability of Rubble Mound Berm Breakwaters Considering the Correlation Among Design Parameters

Author(s): Ali Jamali Rovesht; Mehdi Shafieefar

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Keywords: Rubble mound berm breakwater; Reliability; Copula; Monte Carlo; Climate change

Abstract: This research evaluates the reliability of rubble mound berm breakwaters in the Port of Tombak, located in Iran, examining the direct impact of climate change and the importance of considering and applying the correlation between design parameters on the hydraulic performance of these structures. Using the Copula function and Monte Carlo Sampling, it was found that the correlation between design parameters significantly affects the probability of breakwater failure. The results indicate that sea level rise due to climate change dramatically increases the probability of breakwater failure. These findings highlight the necessity of using probabilistic design methods to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainties in the design of rubble mound berm breakwaters.

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Year: 2024

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