Author(s): Alena Averina
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Water regime; Runoff modeling; High-mountain river; Climate change; Altai Mountains
Abstract: In the context of modern climate change, there is a considerable degradation of glaciers, which causes changes in the water regime of rivers in mountainous areas. The application of runoff formation models for calculation and forecasting of runoff of high-mountain rivers can provide positive results. In this study, the ECOMAG software package was adapted for modeling river runoff in the high-mountain basin of the Katun River (Altai mountains) based on data on the underlying catchment surface (relief, soils, vegetation, glaciated area) and daily data on temperature, air humidity deficit and precipitation. The sensitivity of the model to changes in climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) and to the area of glaciation, was assessed. The results indicate that the flow of the Katun River may increase significantly (from 6% to 11.5%) under various RCP climate change scenarios by the end of the century.
Year: 2024