Author(s): Isa Ebtehaj; Mathis Royer; Hossein Bonakdari
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Ottawa River flow depth; Precipitaiton; Temperature; Water resource management
Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of precipitation and temperature on the Ottawa River's flow depth using Bayesian theory, providing a probabilistic framework to explore how these climatic variables affect river behavior under different flow regimes. Historical precipitation and temperature data were used to examine three distinct scenarios: high, medium, and low flow depths. The findings demonstrate that while precipitation is the primary driver of flow variations, the Ottawa River system shows considerable resilience to changes in precipitation due to secondary hydrological processes such as groundwater recharge and snowmelt. Furthermore, temperature extremes -- both hot and cold -- play a stabilizing role in maintaining flow depth, particularly for medium and high flow regimes. This study underscores the importance of incorporating both precipitation and temperature in predictive models for river flow, with potential applications for flood risk management and water resource planning in the context of increasing climate variability.
Year: 2024