Author(s): Qian Yu; Minghua Chu; Yanyan Wang
Linked Author(s): Yanyan Wang, Qian Yu
Keywords: Extreme floods; Assessment; Index system; Hazard; Comprehensive impacts
Abstract: In the context of climate change, the frequency of intense precipitation events has risen, leading to an increase in extreme floods, such as the 2021 Central European flood and the “23z7” extreme flood of the Haihe River Basin, China. These extreme floods not only result in significant economic losses but also pose a severe threat to human lives. Moreover, they have the potential to cause environmental contamination in ecologically sensitive regions. Therefore, this study initiates an analysis of the extreme flood disaster chain to evaluate potential consequences. Through the application of event tree analysis, we identify assessment indicators focusing on flood hazards and comprehensive consequences. The established assessment index system comprises a total of 28 indicators. Among them, seven indicators represent the hazards of extreme floods, such as inundation area and velocity. The remaining 21 indicators are further categorized into economic impact indicators, social impact indicators, and environmental impact indicators. Economic impact indicators include direct economic losses like residential housing loss and family property loss. Social impact indicators involve the affected population, while environmental impact indicators consider potential harm to natural reserves and other ecologically sensitive areas. Applying this assessment index system to the Jingjiang Flood Diversion District (JFDD) in the Yangtze River Basin, we assess two scenarios, namely a 200-year event and a 1000-year event. The findings indicate inundation areas of 845.7 km2 and 879.49 km2, respectively. In both scenarios, nearly the entire area of JFDD is inundated, affecting populations of 0.48 million and 0.5 million, accompanied by direct economic losses of 13.43 billion and 17.19 billion, respectively. Notably, residential housing losses predominate, followed by agricultural and family property losses. Both extreme floods significantly impact local ecology and environment. The proposed methodology proves valuable for decision-makers, offering effective support and aiding in post-disaster compensation efforts.
Year: 2024