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Keywords: Middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration; Water-energy-grain coupling; Ecosystem service; Sustainable land management; Decision Support Model
Abstract: This study investigates the interplay between the Water-Energy-Food (WEL) nexus and ecosystem services in the Middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration, recognizing its paramount significance for regional sustainability and urban governance. Utilizing multidimensional and multilevel methodologies, the research undertakes an in-depth examination of land use transition control, aiming to elucidate the precise impacts of land use alterations on water resources, energy, food security, and ecosystem services, alongside addressing the challenge of aligning scientific theories with policy implementation. To begin with, the study develops a regionally scaled WEL ecosystem services integration model that incorporates several subsystems including land use transition, water supply-demand balance, energy generation, and agricultural productivity. The model’s structure and parameters were meticulously validated through collaboration with local stakeholders, involving field surveys, data gathering, and quantitative analysis. Under a baseline scenario where no targeted land use transition or ecological conservation policies are enacted, the model forecasts that while intensified land development may lead to increased food and energy production capacities within the urban agglomeration, it will also correspondingly heighten water security risks, energy consumption intensity, and the degradation of ecosystem service functions. Subsequently, the research simulates various land use transition control policy scenarios, demonstrating that each policy yields anticipated improvements within their respective thematic areas, such as enhanced water resource management, improved energy efficiency, or optimized agricultural layouts ensuring food supply. However, given the inherent interconnectedness within the WEL-ecosystem services system, the execution of individual or combined policies might provoke positive or negative feedback loops across different sectors, engendering cross-sector trade-offs and conflicts. Drawing from the model analyses, this study advances concrete policy recommendations for land use transition and ecosystem service conservation in the Middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration, underscoring the essentiality of meticulous consideration of intersectoral linkages during policy formulation and execution. The study further advocates for the employment of intuitive decision support tools to interpret model outputs and suggests the adoption of appropriate composite indicators to assess the coupled performance of WEL-ecosystem services. To bridge the gap between science and policy, the study ensures sustained engagement with local governments, communities, and industrial stakeholders throughout the research process, thereby contributing to the development of a novel, synergistic, and sustainable land use paradigm in the Middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration that harmoniously integrates water, energy, food resources, and ecosystem services.
Year: 2024