Author(s): Akihiro Nomura; Shota Saito; Ayumi Saruwatari; Yasunori Watanabe
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Storm surge; D4PDF; Winter cyclone; Statistical risk analysis; Cyclone trajectory
Abstract: Storm surge disaster caused by explosive cyclones frequently occur around Hokkaido in the winter season. Future changes in winter explosive cyclones and storm surge due to climate change need to be considered. In this study, the explosive cyclones classified by genesis and maximum development location into three trajectory types using d4PDF. We compared the frequency of passage, migration speed, central pressure, development rate, and maximum wind velocity of explosive cyclones between past and future climates. In addition, we calculated water levels and flow fields using an advanced circulation model for oceanic. The calculation results were used to evaluate the impact of changes in the characteristics of the meteorological field on storm surge levels. The comparison results show that in the future climate, the passing frequency in- creased from the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk. The maximum magnitude low-pressure intensity could intensify. The storm surge calculation results show areas that could be dangerous in the future.
Year: 2024