Author(s): Karim Alizad, Scott C. Hagen, Matthew V. Bilskie
Linked Author(s): Karim Alizad
Keywords: Salt marsh, Hydro-MEM, sea level rise, Northern Gulf of Mexico
Abstract: Coastal wetlands, specifically salt marsh systems, are ecosystems that are at risk of increased flooding, reduced productivity, and potential collapse under increasing rates of sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh systems will respond differently to changes in mean sea level due to their geographic location, sediment source, salinity, and tide range. Therefore, it is critical to study how various estuaries and their salt marshes may respond to SLR. Herein, we focus on estuarine systems along the northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle) coasts. Hydrodynamics and biomass productivity for each study site are simulated using the Hydro-MEM model to examine the marsh response to changes in mean sea level across four SLR projections for the year 2100. The Hydro-MEM model uses the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code to incorporate the dynamics of SLR and the complex flooding and ebbing within a marsh system. Results demonstrate the response of salt marsh productivity and the potential for upland migration for each estuarine system. To make the ecosystems more resilient through natural recovery, removing additional stressors is recommended. This research demonstrates that preparing higher lands for wetland migration can help these ecosystems become more resilient to SLR. The end product serves as a tool for coastal managers to make informed decisions about wetland vulnerability to SLR and plan properly to foster resiliency
Year: 2017