Author(s): Reza Javidi Sabbaghian

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Decision support system; Risk analysis; Group consensus; Weighted ordered weighted averaging; Watershed governance;

Abstract: In recent years, inefficient governance in water resources management and unbalanced allocation of the resources into several demands have caused a crisis within many watersheds. One of the most important challenges for the stakeholders is the group consensus in selecting the most preferable water scenario for watershed. The other important challenge is the consideration of the stakeholders’ risk tendencies, which affect the final selection. This paper develops a novel approach based on risk analysis by using the weighted ordered weighted averaging (WOWA) operator, in order to calculate the scores of scenarios for satisfying the number of criteria. In addition, the group consensus is considered by utilizing the compromise programming (CP) method based on the distances between each stakeholder’s opinion with regard to that of the group. Accordingly, the group scores and consensus measurements of scenarios are determined and scenarios are ranked based on the group consensus measurements in several risk tendencies of stakeholders. This approach has been developed for Kashafrud watershed, to select the most preferable water supply scenario in 2040. The scenarios have been evaluated with respect to the sustainable development criteria based on the watershed modelling. Finally, the sustainable development has been analyzed to determine the most preferable scenario for satisfying the most important criteria within the watershed. The results showed that the ranking of scenarios depends on the risk assessment and group consensus. Development of the risk-based decision support system model is recommended for effective governance of any watershed within the world.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/38WC092019-0565

Year: 2019