Author(s): Janez Sušnik

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Latvia; Nexus; Policy impacts; System dynamics modelling;

Abstract: Water, energy, food/land use and climate are connected a system defined by complexity, feedback and delay. Therefore the characteristics of the nexus change depending on the scale being considered, the location, and the sectors of interest. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is an approach developed for studying complex systems, and has found widespread applications elsewhere, especially in the environmental and natural sciences. Due to its flexibility, it is an ideal tool to explore the nexus: many disparate sectors can easily be combined and interlinked in one coherent modelling environment. SIM4NEXUS (www.sim4nexus.eu) is developing policy-relevant serious games for 12 case studies in scale from sub-national to global. Here, the SDM and baseline results are presented for the Latvia case study. The principle nexus sectors of interest are land use (changes), energy generation, and water quality impacts. Of particular interest is the drive towards a low carbon economy through the cultivation of crops for energy (biomass). However, this may hinder other targets such as increasing food security, protection of forested lands, and preserving and improving water quality and biodiversity. The SDM captures critical elements, dynamically linking the nexus sectors but with a focus towards the biofuel and energy, and the concomitant impacts on the water, land and climate sectors (e.g. the impacts of converting crop or forestry land to biocrop areas). Policy options, developed with local expert stakeholder groups, are to be included in order to assess nexus-wide impacts of current, and potential future, policy directions within Latvia.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/38WC092019-0703

Year: 2019