Author(s): Mark Hegnauer; Tsuyoshi Hoshino; Tomohito J. Yamada
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Extreme events; Hydrological model comparison; Hokkaido; Flood risk; D4PDF
Abstract: In 2016 Hokkaido (northernmost island in Japan) experienced extreme rainfall, resulting in severe flood damage due to the four typhoons. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of typhoons that will cause heavy rainfall in Hokkaido in the future. Better understanding the dynamics of these events, a modelling study is conducted to simulate past and future flood dynamics. The study includes an ensemble meteorological events for past and future climate conditions. A set of over 8,000 events are used as input to multiple rainfall-runoff models. The ensemble of models includes both semi and fully distributed models and all cover the river basin of the Tokachi River. The models simulate the hydrological processes differently and differ in the level of detail they simulate these processes. The multi - model ensemble is used to investigate the importance of the different processes in the simulation of extreme flood events in Hokkaido. The results of the model comparison can be used to further develop the models to optimize their use in the flood risk assessment for Hokkaido and potentially Japan. The comparison is a joint effort of a consortium of researchers from Japan and The Netherlands.
Year: 2020