Author(s): Tomohito J. Yamada; Tsuyoshi Hoshino
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Adaptation; Flood risk; Dynamical downscaling; D4PDF; NHRCM
Abstract: It is important to develop a plan to adapt to future heavy rainfall because heavy floods have frequently occurred in Japan over the past few years. This study examined the influence of climate change on rainfall characteristics over river basins in Hokkaido, Japan. We used dynamical downscaling to perform large ensemble regional climate experiments with a 5-km grid spacing from the d4PDF database for policy decision-making for future climate change. To evaluate the flood risk from various viewpoints, targets for dynamical downscaling were added: heavy rainfall events under the 2-K warmer condition and full 1-year dynamical downscaling for the past and 4-K warmer conditions. The results enabled us to quantify the influence of the degree of global warming on the annual maximum heavy rainfall and rainfall volume before heavy rainfall events. This research contributes to the expert committees for adaptation planning.
Year: 2020