Author(s): Christos V. Makris; Yannis S. Androulidakis; Yannis N. Krestenitis; Katerina K. Kombiadou; Vassilis N. Baltikas
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Keywords: Storm Surge; Climate Change; Mediterranean; Greek Seas; Hydrodynamic Modelling
Abstract: Extreme storm surge events pose a great threat to low-elevation coastal areas and can cause loss of land and property, damages to structures and defenses, and even human casualties. Hereby, we explore the trends of meteorologically induced extremes of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea, with a specific focus on the Greek seas, for a period of 150years (1951-2100) .The analysis is based on hydrodynamic simulations of storm surges with a couple of high spatial resolution model implementations for 2D shallow water equations, the Greek Climate Surge Model (Gre CSM) ,which is nested to the coarser domain of the Mediterranean Climate Surge Model (Me CSM) .The latter are implemented under IPCC’s A1B climate scenario that considers increasing future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this framework, in situ measurements from several areas, during the last 50 years, are used to evaluate the models’results. Statistical indices and spatial distributions of extremes, from both historical data and modelling, show good agreement. This confirms the ability of our models to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We also investigate the future trends, the variability and occurrence frequency of extreme sea level anomalies and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean basin and the Greek seas. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario. However, this is mostly related to the occurrence frequency of sea-surface maxima and the spatial coverage of storm surges, yet not to the actual magnitudes of sea level maxima that can increase during the 21st century. We show that the different morphological characteristics of the regional Seas in the Mediterranean basin have a significant influence on the variability of extreme events, and there are also clear distinctions in the seasonal variability of extremes under the A1B scenario. The significant storm surge extremes, along the Mediterranean and the Greek coastlines, are predicted until2100, through the use of recently proposed Indices. The impact of Climate Change on the evolution of storm surge extremes on the Greek coastal zone is also investigated.
Year: 2015