Author(s): Riccardo Mel; Piero Lionello; Luca Carniello; Luigi D&Apos; Alpaos
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Ensemble; Storm surge; Venice; Probabilistic forecast; Flood forecast
Abstract: This contribution describes recent work on the development of an operational sea level (SL) prediction system for the city of Venice. The quality of sea level (SL) forecast is crucial for the management and maintenance of this city and for operating the movable barriers that are planned to become operational in2016 for its protection. Recent studies have described the development of an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and its effectiveness for delivering a fully informative prediction including a probabilistic forecast for SL in Venice. This paper discusses a simplified procedure where the full implementation of this method, which requires performing multiple simulations with deterministic models, is avoided. The procedure“dresses”the deterministic prediction of SL in the northern Adriatic Sea with an estimate of its uncertainty that is based on a simple algorithm. This is possible because uncertainty in sea level forecast is to a large extent caused by the uncertainties affecting the forcing meteorological fields, on the predicted value of sea level and it increases with the forecast time range. Here, the results of an operational forecast procedure applied for a 3-month long period in the year 2010, during which an exceptional sequence of storm surges occurred, are shown and compared to Italian and Croatian tide gauges distributed along the coast of the Adriatic Sea. It is shown that the dressed prediction can provide an acceptably realistic estimate of the uncertainty.
Year: 2015