Author(s): Ashish Sharma
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate Change; Extremes; Design Flood Estimation; Antecedent Rainfall
Abstract: This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of the implications changes in climate will have on design flood estimation. The paper stems from a need to reflect on the changes that are supported by observations currently available, instead of overly relying on a suite of complex models whose reliability for practical applications is often found wanting. It is suggested that if observations are supporting theoretical hypotheses of changes in extremes, then strategies be put in place to modify design sequences to reflect the changes that are likely. If climate model simulations are to be used, they should ideally be restricted to variables that have been characterised as reliably simulated for future (warmer) climates. The review is formulated using a series of questions that are addressed using observational records on a range of variables that impact design flood estimation.
Year: 2014