Author(s): Proloy Deb; Duong Anh Tran; Nguyen Mai Dang
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Rice yield; SDSM v 4.2; AquaCrop v 4.0; Ca Mau; Vietnam
Abstract: The present study analyzes the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on paddy yield for autumnwinter (AW) and summer-autumn (SA) cropping pattern. Climate variables for the future time windows were derived from general circulation model (Had CM3) which were further downscaled using SDSM 4.2 at three different stations for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s and 2085s). Aqua Crop 4.0 was used to project the future paddy yield for the considered stations. Our results illustrate that climate change will elevate the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the stations ranging from 1.60 to 2.65°C and 2.08 to 2.97°C respectively for 2085s. An increase in average annual rainfall is also observed ranging from 8.8 to 35.3%for the three stations for the corresponding time window. Simulation for rice productivity shows a decline of paddy yield by-13.75 and-9.76%by 2085s relative to baseline climate for SA cropping season in case of A2 and B2scenarios respectively. However, an increasing trend in paddy yield was observed in AW season with a boost of12.5 and 8.12%for corresponding scenarios for period.
Year: 2014