Author(s): Ngo Van Quan; Gwangseob Kim
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Land use change; ArcSWAT; CA_Markov; Hydrological model; River basin; Spatial distribution
Abstract: The climate change and land use change are two main factors that effected strongly of spatial distribution in river basin, they have not only significantly influenced the hydrology process during the last decades but will continue to influence this process more extremely in the future in the watershed hydrology. The main purpose of study was to investigate how to assess the integrated impacts both of climate change and land use changes on streamflow under different spatial variability in river basin in the future by using the both of models of hydrology model as the ArcS WAT model and land use change model as CA_Markov model, which were combined to achieve this study goal. The future of land use change maps were forecasted for years of 2030,2050 and 2080, and the benchmark periods of climate data as baseline of 1983-2011, and future periods of 2012-2040,2041-2069 and 2070-2098 under scenarios A2, B1 and A1B to simulate streamflow in the future. The results of the average annual integrated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow of each period in the future showed an increase tendency. However, the mean season of streamflow showed significantly reduce of-4.05%in autumn under A1B, and considerably increased in winter of+8.10%, +4.14%, and in summer of+4.12%, +11.6%, under A2, B1 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, result also determined impacts of climate change and land use change on average streamflow under different spatial distribution specifically as outlets of whole, sub-Gamchoen and sub-Kumho basins, which indicated large variable on streamflow at smaller with more urban land expanding. In specific, large variability of integrated impact on average annual streamflow of each period as+4.25%and+5.10%under A2 scenario in Gamchoen and Kumho basin, respectively while it increased+1.10%in entire basin and the highest large changes of+5.8%and+6.7%, +1.20%under A2 for climate change of period 2070-2098 with land use 2080 in subasin-Gamchoen, subasin-Kumho and entire basin, respectively. This study is to provide useful support for the sustainable water resources management strategies and policy in river basins.
Year: 2014