Author(s): Le Manh Hung; Lu Hai Shen; Nguyen Cao Don
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Human activities; Runoff; SCRCQ method; Sensitivity based method
Abstract: Understanding and quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff is a prerequisite to manage water resources. This paper aims to separate the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities in Bengbu basin from 1960 to 2010. We firstly use the Mann-Kendall test to detect the change of precipitation, runoff and potential evapotranspiration. The result indicates that only potential evapotranspiration experienced a decrease trend at the confidence level of 0.05, with a change-point is the year of1971. Next, we divided data set into two study periods as before and after the change-point. Two methods, namely, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantify (SCRCQ) and sensitivity based method, are adopted to quantify the attribution of climate change and human activities to runoff variation. We found that climate change contributed for an increased runoff, whereas human activities were the main driving factor for the runoff decline, and the contribution of the latter is greater than those of the former, resulting a slight decrease in runoff over 51 years.
Year: 2014