Author(s): Cuneyt Yavuz; Elcin Kentel
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Tsunami; probabilistic tsunami analysis; critical infrastructures; NAMI-DANCE
Abstract: Mediterranean experienced numerous earthquakes and some of them triggered tsunamis throughout the history. Historical records, locations of fault zones and volcanoes indicate that there are some tsunamigenic sources in the Mediterranean Sea. Thus, tsunami hazard assessment of the region is important for designing early warning systems, site selection of future critical infrastructures (CIs) and planning necessary mitigation measures for existing CIs and settlement areas. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of tsunamis is conducted along the Cyprus arc. Fitted probability density functions (PDFs) of the focal depth and the magnitude are used together with source parameters of historical earthquakes to generate PDFs of inundation depth at a number of CIs along the Gulf of Mersin. Locations of the simulated earthquakes are selected from the previously recorded tsunamis originated in the Mediterranean Sea and NAMI-DANCE software is used to estimate inundation depths. Selected CIs include ports, industrial zones, and waste water treatment plants. Simulated run-up results are assessed and PDFs of inundation depths at the CI locations are analyzed. It is concluded that some of the existing CIs may be vulnerable to probable future tsunamis.
Year: 2016