Author(s): A. Mustafa; M. Bruwier; J. Teller; P. Archambeau; S. Erpicum; M. Pirotton; B. Dewals
Keywords: No keywords
Abstract: Climate change and urban development are key factors influencing future flood damage. This paper evaluates the sensitivity of future flood damage to a number of urban expansion scenarios for the river Meuse in Belgium. Based on these scenarios, the impact of urban development on flood damage is assessed. The study uses the multinomial logistic regression model, which enables visualization of the consequences of different urban densities expansion. Land registry data for the years 1990,2000 and 2010 were used to define four classes (non-urban, low-density, medium-density and high-density urban). Besides, several socioeconomic, geographic and political driving forces for urban development were operationalized to create maps of urbanization likelihood. These maps were then used to predict future urban scenarios for 2020 and 2030. The flood damage estimation was performed for urban lands by overlaying the inundation map for a specific flood discharge with the different urban expansion scenarios and by using a damage curve and specific prices.