Author(s): D. Conde; M. J. Telhado; C. Antunes; R. M. L. Ferreira
Linked Author(s): Rui M.L. Ferreira
Keywords: Tsunami; Mathematical Modelling; Tagus Estuary
Abstract: A revision of the catalogue of tsunamis known to have struck the Portuguese coast has shown that the Tagus estuary has been affected by several major tsunamis over the past two millennia. Bordered by the largest metropolitan area in Portugal, Tagus estuary is one of the most worrisome locations in what concerns safety of populations and potential material losses. The main objective of this work is to assess the critical inundation areas in Lisbon, through mathematical simulations, resulting from the propagation of a tsunami similar to that of the 1st November 1755. The simulation tool was assembled at CEHIDRO-IST and is based on a shallow-flow solver coupled with conservation equations for the finer solid phase and a Lagrangian model for the advection of large debris. Two initial conditions featuring tidal, atmospheric and fluvial conditions were considered in order to provide the Civil Protection services with different possible scenarios.