Author(s): Martin Bruwier; Benjamin Dewals; Sebastien Erpicum; Michel Pirotton; Pierre Archambeau
Keywords: Reservoir; Climate-proofing; Operation rule; Indicator; Risk
Abstract: Available climate change scenarios project drier summers and more humid winters for Belgium. This study addresses the impacts of those changes on the management of two multipurpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre basin, and the search of enhanced operation rules to mitigate those changes. For this purpose, an integrated model is used, including a hydrological model of the Vesdre watershed, a hydraulic model of this river, a model of the dam complex operation rules and a flood risk model. Performance indicators of the dams are defined, representing drinking water production, damages due to floods and hydropower production. First, a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters of the dam operation rules on the performance indicators is achieved. Afterwards, for two extreme climate scenarios at the time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, impacts of climate change on the reservoir performances are determined. Then, the results of the sensitivity analysis are used to indicate if climate change impacts may be mitigated by means of enhanced operation rules.