Author(s): Zhimin Deng; Xiang Zhang; Dan Li
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Land use; Artificial Neutral Network; Cellular Automata; SWAT; Hydrological effects
Abstract: The research of LUCC (land use/cover change, LUCC) is one of the most pressing issues of global change research at present, delving into and quantifying the hydrological effects caused by land use/cover change contribute to an overall assessment of the hydrological cycle within the watershed. Firstly, a coupled Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) watershed land use/cover change simulation model is presented based on the Matlab platform and is applied to simulate the future land use/cover change in the upstream of Hanjiang Basin. The results indicate that the area of paddy field, dry land, shrubbery, and construction land in the future have increased in varying degrees. However, the areas of woodland, grassland, and waters have decreased. And then watershed runoff parameter of the model was calibrated by using the monthly runoff datum of the Huangjiagang hydrological station of watershed outlet during 1987-1996, the model was validated by applying monthly runoff datum during 1997-2001, hydrological effects under the different LUCC scenarios were simulated by applying SWAT model. Finally, the impact of LUCC on the surface runoff and evapotranspiration was analyzed. The results show that the impact of annual land use change on runoff is more significant than the flood season, annual runoff variation coefficient and annual runoff distribution coefficient become an upward trend. Therefore the ANN-CA model is capable of simulating multiple classes of land use/cover changes and the SWAT model facilitates planning for a sustainable land management, and the coupling of two models provides a new approach to assess the potential redistribution of land use types in the future.
Year: 2013