Author(s): Christina Tsai; Mao Li
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Uncertainty analysis; Water quality; Perturbancemoments method
Abstract: A three-point approximation method, the Perturbance Moments Method (PMM), is applied to quantify the uncertainty of predicted dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in the Buffalo river that arise from various sources of uncertainty, such as data variability and parameter uncertainty. Numerical investigations reveal that the overall uncertainty of the output DO concentrations does not necessarily equal to the sum of the uncertainties of all individual variables or parameters of interest. Therefore, different sources of uncertainty can have compensative or additive effects on the overall uncertainty of output DO concentrations. In a particular case study of the Buffalo River, the variability of measured concentrations was demonstrated to have the largest influence on the overall uncertainty of predicted DO concentrations.
Year: 2013