Author(s): Dan Hine; Jim Hall
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flood risk analysis; Uncertainty; Info-gap; Robustness analysis
Abstract: Flood risk analysis is subject to often severe uncertainties, which can potentially undermine engineering decisions. These uncertainties originate from, amongst other sources, limitations in data used to construct distributions input into risk analysis and inadequacies of the hydraulic models used to calculate flood depths. This paper explores the use of info-gap theory to analyse the sensitivity of engineering decisions to severe uncertainties. Info-gap is a quantified non-probabilistic theory of robustness. It is applied to an idealised example of flood risk analysis for three engineering design options in which both the flood frequency distribution and the hydraulic modelling of flood depths are treated as being uncertain.
Year: 2007