Author(s): Il-Won Jung; Deg-Hyo Bae; Chang-Sam Jeong
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Keywords: Climate change; Regional impact assessment; Water resources; LARS-WG; PRMS; Kore
Abstract: The frequency and intensity of extreme events are highly expected in the 21st century, and therefore the necessity of regional-scale climate change scenario is high for evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources and various environment systems. Especially reliable regional scale data is essential due to the complex topography with various climate characteristics in Korea. The 27×27km high resolution NCAR/PSU MM5 scenario is downscaled that from 350km horizontal resolution ECHO-G data. The LARS-WG was selected and evaluated to overcome the limitation of climate model and to create a highly reliable climate scenario. The results show that the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature and monthly mean precipitation are within ±20% from the observed mean, and ±50% from the standard deviation that represents the generated data are highly reliable. In order to generate the climate and hydrological scenarios for each sub-basin, we used the LARS-WG model, a stochastic weather generator, and the PRMS hydrologic model. The comparison results of the streamflows between the 30-year baseline period (1971-2000) and future 90-year (2001-2030, 2031-2060, 2061-2090) show that the long-term mean annual runoff in the Han River has increasing trend, while the Nakdong, Gum, Youngsan and Sumjin River have decreasing.
Year: 2007