Author(s): Westrich Bernhard; Vermeer Pieter A.; Fischer Manuel; Mollmann Axel
Linked Author(s): Bernhard Westrich
Keywords: Reliability analysis; River dikes; Failure probability
Abstract: Reliability and risk analysis are becoming increasingly important in integrated flood protection analysis. As a consequence of the severe hundred year Elbe flood in 2002, an elaborated reliability analysis of the river dikes is performed as a case study at the Elbe River in Saxony, Germany, by the help of the probabilistic software package PC-Ring from TNO Bouw, Delft, The Netherlands. Fundamental investigations on required and available input data, data preparation and adaptation of the data and software, respectively, to local requirements are being performed. Subsequently, the failure probability of individual dike sections in the domain is calculated for various failure modes. The results will be used to identify weak links in the existing flood protection system, help to extend and improve the existing flood protection concept in the project domain and increase the knowledge of modern reliability analysis in Germany.
Year: 2007