Author(s): Erich J. Plate
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Vulnerability analysis; Risk management; Floods
Abstract: The concept of human vulnerability against natural disasters is analyzed in a systematic framework. Starting with a general discussion of the factors that influence human vulnerability a framework is presented in which floods are seen as causative events that disrupt the workings of a society. The vulnerability is expressed through the risk against extreme events as a first approximation, but it is indicated that this definition is not sufficient to capture all elements of vulnerability. A disaster is defined as a condition where the vulnerability index exceeds a critical vulnerability index. Due to global change, the risk changes with time, and we find that creeping, or slow onset disasters, may lead to conditions where the vulnerability index is exceeded even if no extreme sudden onset event occurs, whereas under conditions of ordinary vulnerability below the threshold set by the critical vulnerability a disaster occurs only under conditions of rapid onset extreme events.
Year: 2002