Author(s): Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt; Kwok Pan Chun
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: In 2011, Manitoba was stricken by wide-scale flooding causing unprecedented high flows along the Dauphin River. The river ice model RIVICE was implemented to determine backwater levels from the formation of an ice cover along the river generated by frazil. The river has two reaches which are distinctly different in their geomorphological characteristics: an upstream reach which is mildly sloping and sinuous and a downstream reach which is steeper, straighter and more channelized. A global sensitivity analysis based on a Monte Carlo analysis accompanied the modelling to determine how differences in these morphological features influence different processes of the ice cover formation. Two objective functions were used to distinguish between behavioural and non-behavioural model sets: (i) sampled water elevation profiles OF1 and (ii) the progression of the ice front during ice-cover formation OF2. The heat loss coefficient proved to be the most sensitive parameter.
Year: 2014