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An Integrated Stochastic Evaluation of Vegetation Overgrowth Tendency and Flood Protection Safety in Takatsu River Channels Using a Vegetation Dynamics Model

Author(s): Kengo Kataoka; Hitoshi Miyamoto; Takafumi Morishita

Linked Author(s): Hitoshi MIYAMOTO

Keywords: No Keywords

Abstract: This paper tried to evaluate both vegetation overgrowth tendency and flood protection safety in an integrated way for river channels in the lower part of Takatsu River basin. The integrated evaluation used a stochastic process model, which has been developed for statistically evaluating vegetation dynamics on a floodplain/sand bar through the Monte Carlo simulation. The model consisted of four processes as sub-models, i. e., tree population dynamics, flow discharge stochasticity, stream hydraulics, and channel geomorphology. The integrated evaluation examined the effects including the magnitude of flood impacts and the relative change in the floodplain level using very simple scenarios for flow regulation, climate change, and channel form changes. The results showed that, in the lower part of Takatsu River basin, all the channels examined had relatively high flood protection safety in spite of various current vegetation status and channel geomorphology. The integrated stochastic evaluation approach used in this paper could constitute an effective method for evaluating flood protection priority in wellvegetated river channels.

DOI:

Year: 2018

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