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Development of an Expert System for Forecasting the Progression of Breakup at Hay River, NWT, Canada

Author(s): Nadia Kovachis; Faye Hicks; Liming Zhao; Joshua Maxwell

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Abstract: Dynamic river ice breakup and associated flooding are a reality for many northern communities. This is certainly the case in Hay River, NWT, located at the junction of the Hay River and Great Slave Lake, Canada. This community frequently experiences highly dynamic breakups, and floods due to ice jams are an annual threat. As a result, breakup at Hay River receives considerable attention both in the community and from researchers studying ice jams. There is a wealth of local knowledge of the stages and characteristics of the Hay River breakup. However, as these people age and retire, it becomes important to ensure continuity of this local knowledge for operational monitoring purposes. This same information is extremely useful to researchers, in terms of planning and executing an effective scientific monitoring program at this site. The purpose of this study is to combine local experiential knowledge with scientific observations to develop an expert system describing the onset and progression of breakup. Several sources of information have been considered in the development of this expert system, including: the Water Survey of Canada’s and Hay River’s Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) water level data; photos from daily breakup monitoring flights along the river reach; advice from local residents and documented EMO radio communications during breakup. This paper reports on the progress to date in the development of this expert system.

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Year: 2010

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