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Climate Change: Ice Regime in the South-Eastern Part of the Baltic Sea and the Curonian Lagoon

Author(s): Dailidiene; Loreta Kelpsaite

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Abstract: The main task of this study was to invest igate the peculiarit ies of the interannual ice cover variations in the Balt ic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Balt ic Sea, were analysed along with the time series o f some related hydro-climatic factors. The necessary data for the analys is were taken from the 1961– 2005 period available informat ion on findings of hydro logical posts. The data have also been gathered in the Center of Marine Research (CMR) and the archives of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service. The study results suggest that rise in the sea-level, increase in the air and water temperature, decrease in the ice cover durat ion are probably related to the changes in atmospheric circulat ion, and, more specifically, to the changes in wind climate. That is in a good agreement w ith the increasing trends in local storminess and in higher intensity o f westerly winds, and with the winter NAO index that indicates the change of the atmospheric circulat ion in the North At lant ic region, including the Balt ic Sea area. Assessment of impact of the annual mean water temperature to the ice phenomena in the shore zone of the Balt ic Sea statist ically reliably determined the relation between the increase in air temperature and decrease in durat ion of ice phenomena. The number o f days with ice phenomena in the Balt ic Sea at Nida decreased by 50% during the period of 1961-2005 and witnesses a warming of winters.

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Year: 2010

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